Monday, December 08, 2008

Five states vote!

The numbers are in!

Delhi

It seems to be a pure progress vote bank. One off stupid statements by Sheila Dixit and the terror strikes in Mumbai doesn't seem to have fazed the Delhi public to overlook her work on progress in the last 10 odd years. A slight dent in their majority may eventually emerge, but will not be enough to worry the congress. I'm guessing the face of smooth Sheila did it for the Congress in the end as compared to where-did-he-fall-out-of V.K. Malhotra. So Delhi's votebanks seem to have voted as if they were voting in a mayor of the city rather than the CM of a state. It seems very local and purely related to a visible developmental performance.

Post-mortem analysis:

V.K. Malhotra should have made more local developmental promises rather than beat the national security and project the centre's inefficacy on Sheila. Delhi seems to be a local public when it comes to state elections. I however doubt whether they'll think the same way when it comes to the LS polls. Delhi being a majority urban centre I'm guessing their public have enough understanding to keep the National issues separate from the regional issues. LS polls will be able to confirm this.

Madhya Pradesh

Looks like this one goes back to the BJP. Old hindutva links and Shivraj Singh Chouhan's developmental plank seems to have worked. BJP will be happy to have retained an incumbent state. MP is also an important state for the LS polls and a strong showing will give them confidence. Not much going for the Congress in 'Hindustan ka dil'

Post-mortem analysis:

Congress needs to really invest in someone special and some really strong issues to dent the BJP here.

Rajasthan

It looks like Rajasthan is confused again. Vasundhara Raje's bumbling mess of a government has probably got what it deserved. Central inefficacy wasn't a good enough reason for the people of Rajasthan to think of choosing Raje again. She's got the boot. However, I must say it wasn't as big a boot as everyone expected it to be. It's not crystal clear as I write yet, but suffice to say that Rajasthan chose the anti-incumbent against the royal. But it seems Ashok Gehlot wasn't all but forgotten, else the defeat would've been a rout. Choose the lesser of two weevils!

Post-mortem analysis:

When you get power – do more than buy BMW's and choppers and if you do, ensure that is heard more than the blades of your chopper. Local development factors here too.

Chattisgarh

Raman Singh's developmental plank seems to have worked. Even though large areas of the state is still widely tribal forest land, it's no simple task to be in the top 5 states in the country to do business in. Add on top of that the stupidity of the Congress with Salwa Julum, I'm not surprised. Overall, well done Raman Singh but your developmental effects aren't reaching all corners of your state, or you would have improved your lead from last time.

Post-mortem analysis:

Local development seems to factor here too in the State elections. Congress can only hope their existing MLAs can do something in terms of development that is big enough to reverberate in the other constituencies.

Mizoram

A whitewash by the Congress. Largest ever majority by any party in this state. I'm beginning to wonder whether Rahul Gandhi was really effective. I always thought he was a waste of food, drink, petrol, newspaper ink and Video camera memory!

Post-mortem analysis:

No Idea.

1 comment:

Nil said...

Good to see you getting active here - keep it up. Hope to come back soon and comment on the recent posts.